Market Confidence

A user posted on Bitcointalk.org a question about where will the price of Bitcoin go this week.  This week we have seen the rise to new levels not seen in a while (relative to the existence of Bitcoin).  I thought I’d post my response here.
One way to look at this, and it’s only one way.
Since a market is in part based on trust and confidence, peoples beliefs matter.  I’m with you if there is a sell off, I’m buying.
Confidence alone will not suffice a market.  If there is a place to spend them and people use them then there will be a desire to buy them.  I believe the infrastructure has been developed to the point that there is sufficient services to maintain the current price, and there is enough interest in building new infrastructure that the price of BTC will grow higher.
So if confidence falls off, as the supply of BTC out weighs the demand momentarily,  as the ASIC mining arrives, I’m buying.
How might the market take a dip?
- Once ASIC is realized and the network difficult raises to the point GPU miners have to pull their equipment and replace it.  Those that have not already ordered, will do so.
- The doubters of ASIC that now see the ASIC’s working will likely decide to buy
- People with early investment will buy more to keep their profitability up as the hash rate busts through 500 TH and to double that.
All this buying will translate in the companies selling ASIC miners, to need to convert large amounts of BTC to USD, since their suppliers don’t take BTC.
Then there are  still others that took loans to buy the equipment they purchased they will be looking to convert BTC to fiat to pay off loans.
After this settles, things will be back to normal.  So a small dip is a possibility.
However, given the recent boom in Bitcoin, there could well be a increase in the price but at a smaller pace than we are currently seeing.
We will soon see since Avalon claims to be shipping.
Original Post: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=137357.0